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A Small Biotech Stock Turning Into a Serious Cancer Contender

A clear look at risk and opportunity.

Disclaimer
This newsletter presents my technical analysis and insights for informational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, or trading advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. I am not a licensed financial advisor.
All content reflects my own personal opinions based on publicly available data as of July 28th, 2025. I am not liable for any losses incurred by others.

$RVMD - Revolution Medicines , Inc

This is a biotech company focused on revolutionary cancer treatment that has flown under the radar ever since its 2020 IPO 
But, suddenly…

-Massive institutional interest has become clear.
-An exploitable discount has been formed.
-A short-term bullish trend could be emerging.

Quarterly Candle Volume & Price Analysis

In late 2023, RVMD released the first meaningful clinical results for their cancer drug. Around the same time, a major acquisition provided a healthy boost to their cash flow, adding much-needed stability to the balance sheet.
This caused institutional investors to make their first significant investment to the stock. The company went from “maybe someday” to a serious contender in cancer therapy.

The stock doubled within the next year, hitting new all-time-highs.
But it quickly rejected…
On notably lower volume than what caused the rally, showing a lack of institutional profit taking.

The next quarter is when a discount was created.
An increase spread candle, backed by a decrease in volume fully confirms that the institutional buyers from late 2023 did NOT participate in the rejection of new ATH’s and the subsequent correction back into the $30’s

As price approached the $30 support and the IPO AVWAP, institutional investors have stepped in once again, shown by the most recent quarterly candle.

They’re clearly becoming more confident in their long-term position here and if support continues to hold, the stock could see another, possibly larger rally.

Daily Candles

Zooming in on the recent correction from ATH’s, there’s further clarity that not only did institutions not sell, but they have been actively accumulating since the high $40’s

Yearly Candles & Explosive Potential

This year’s candle has potential to gain extreme bullish momentum over $37

Five years of sideways action since IPO and now the stock’s highest volumes ever are progressing into a bullish trend.

Only half way through this year’s candle and it’s set up to have the highest volume yet, in the form of a lower wick off $30 and the IPO AVWAP.
$37 is the VPOC and key for short-term momentum.

Conclusion & Risk
Last quarter’s spike in institutional investment at key levels within the DISCOUNT from current ATH’s creates an extremely lucrative opportunity for the retail investor to achieve market-beating returns.
But, this is a biotech. Super risky. Not a blue-chip stock. Not a portfolio anchor.
The volatility here is clear, with +200%, +300% rallies, followed by -75%, -50% declines. Currently in a decline, the risk-to-reward is amazing, but this doesn’t factor in headline risks. Stocks like this can see wild swings or even lose key levels overnight. They can also double overnight.

My Position & Action Steps
This is a small starter position only, with a close eye on the $30-$37 supports.

For True short-term bullish momentum, price needs to be above $37
Above $37 and I even believe leverage (call options) are valid.
Below, and further compression could ensue - I would not want to hold leverage through that.

$30 is the primary basis for this trade. Lose that, and something could be wrong with the stock. I will not be accumulating below that level. Only above.

If this company is going to truly to become a long-term winner driven by revolutionary cancer treatments, it has a long road ahead and will give me many more opportunities to increase my position size at higher prices within new accumulation and discount phases as it proves itself.

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