$SPY

The last few weeks I have shown you blatant accumulation taking place on the S&P500. Institutions are long and are actively adding new longs.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t always mean price is ready to go up NOW.
https://twitter.com/AllllSevens/status/1695861749700784415?s=20

In the short-term we must be very open minded, as institutions don’t move the market day-to-day or month-to-month.
Retail participants do.
This means price-momentum and current market sentiment is essential.

So, let’s approach this week with an open mind.

I like to gauge price-momentum with Heikin Ashi candles.
Momentum is currently favoring downside as long as price opens below $441.84 this week.

If it opens above, then bulls could be taking control.

Despite the two bullish volume anomalies the previous two weeks,
price is actually showing a bearish setup right now.

A decreased volume inside bar following a large volume candle statistically favors continuation of the large volume candle.
Also, a notable upper wick was left behind from the $441.84 level, which is keeping price-momentum in favor of bears.

As long as price stays below this level, I think downside is favorable.
While I think downside is favorable this week, I don’t think it’s absolutely A+

Like I said, we have two bullish anomalies in recent weekly candles.
This week, while it is a decreased volume inside bar, favoring downside continuation, it is a relatively high volume candle…
Increased volume inside bars favor reversals of the previous candle.
This weeks candle is not increased volume, but it is above average.
So it is not an A+ long for me still.

But,
IF momentum shifts to the upside, and price begins to build structure over $441.84 then I think price will aggressively push higher.

Conclusion-
Monthly bias- Neutral
Weekly bias- Neutral/Bearish

My plan is simple this week.
I anticipate downside continuation below $441.80
If price builds structure over $441.80 I will anticipate upside.

My weekly bias is Neutral because while I think downside is the most probable scenario, it is not an A+ setup and I could easily see price reversing if it gets over resistance.

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