Tesla's Long-Term Opportunity Hiding in Plain Sight

Preface:
While a short-term bullish move is clearly on the horizon for $TSLA, I am first more focused on anticipating one of the most explosive multi-year rallies in the entire stock market. From what I see on social media, people are mostly just focused on trading $TSLA in the short-term rather than investing in it for the long haul, and I believe this is a major mistake. I want to bridge this gap.

This is one of the largest stocks in the world by market-cap, so it is extremely important to understand the scale of the patterns I am about to show you.
The amount of institutional money behind this stock is unlike any other.
It makes the current setup that much more powerful and increases the chances of long-term success drastically. It is so key to take a moment to zoom out with a stock like this and remember the point of the market is not just short-term gains, but capturing multi-year rallies to create long-term wealth.

When I am interested in call options on top of this long-term thesis, I will write about it on X. Follow me @SevenParr
I will also discuss this a bit in this newsletter, so stay tuned, just bear with me!

Let’s dive into these extremely unique higher time frame dynamics on $TSLA

$TSLA - Tesla Inc

2020, TSLA pumps on its highest volume ever, showing it’s largest institutional buy presence since inception.

2022, the stock falls over 70% from highs…
But notice the relative decrease in volume.
Institutional buyers from 2020 did NOT sell.

2023, institutional buyers get active again…

Over the last two years since then, price has began showing a very healthy bullish trend in development, with price using the 2020 Anchored Volume Point of Control (AVPOC) as well as the Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) as support. This is the 5-Year support zone highlighted.
Since the 2020 institutional investment, this $230 zone has been the most heavily traded price, and therefore the strongest support on record for the stock.
Curling upwards off this level is extremely notable, especially when you consider the compression occurring over the last year.

So far, 2025’s candle is an inside candle.

Last year, price finally broke the downtrend it was in since 2022 ATH’s.
For the first half of this year, price retested the breakout and bounced on increased volume, also defending both AVWAP & AVPOC…
All while trading another inside candle.

Volume + Price Compression + breaking into bullish trend.

The 3-Month candles here might show the current environment for TSLA best.

Double inside bars ever since the downtrend breakout late last year.
Upon retesting this breakout over the last two quarters, last quarters candle shows a significant spike in volume confirming continued institutional accumulation directly off AVPOC + AVWAP

We can also see a new downtrend resistance from current ATH has formed…

Active institutional accumulation in June, off $310.85 is great to see considering all the other time frames so far have only shown buyers from $230

Double inside candles ever since June.

During the late 2024 ATH downtrend breakout, this $346.45 area can be identified as a prior area of large accumulation…
It’s the same area price is currently congested at, waiting for a breakout over.

I’ve also highlighted accumulation as high as the $380 area with a discount open as high as the $430’s ! This is why in my initial yearly chart I have $TSLA marked as a DISCOUNT below the $430’s
Institutions have bought at higher prices than what is currently being traded.
We are actively getting a deal.

This is where a short-term breakout NOW rather than later starts to show some validity and I get why my X feed is going crazy…
Price is curling upwards off the current ATH AVWAP & AVPOC nd sitting right within, but just below a known area of prior accumulation @ $346.45

February discount sell-offs are also extremely clear on this chart.
Increased spread candles with decreases in volume behind them.
Same concept as the 2022 sell-off.

There’s also another high volume hammer visible off this $346.45 level, showing even more accumulation as price has pulled back into this range from ATH’s

Conclusion
While a near-term weekly upside break could definitely be on the very near horizon, price remains extremely compressed, and until it’s over this $346.45 area there is no true A+ edge for ME to take call options… YET.

I will update this. The level of compression here on all time frames definitely does call for an attention to call options on top of the long-term setup, but as of right now the MULTI-YEAR setup is something I really believe people need to be aware of. Thank yo for reading.

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