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SPY
Friday’s candle ‘looks’ indisputably bullish;
A breakout and retest of prior highs resulting in an increased volume bullish engulfing candle with a prominent lower wick
Daily Interval
With that said, I’m here to dispute it
The internal tape of this candle shows major red flags. 👇
1m Interval
1m Interval
Institutions did not buy on Friday. They sold
Specifically off their dark pool levels, $519.32 & $520.93
Weekly Interval
Zooming out, we see the reason institutions aren’t buying this retest…
Distribution began back in March and an unstable low was made in April
Daily Interval
This is the 3x leveraged SPY, the SPXL
It shows strong distribution patterns
Another notable chart…
Weekly Interval
The QQQ is notably different than the SPY in all the right places…
Conclusion
As the market makes a seemingly perfect bullish setup into the new month, institutions are actually going risk-off.
I think it’s extremely notable they’re doing this more so on the higher risk / higher volatility instruments like the QQQ and SPXL
A short-term failure & pullback potentially below April lows is coming.
But, when??
I don’t have a crystal ball & I have absolutely zero interest in nailing THE TOP. That’s a losers game. This newsletter is NOT me calling top…
The market could ROCKET here for all I know.
I just know it won’t last.
This is why I’m going to play a winner’s game:
Wait for my bearish triggers to get broke.
SPY bearish triggers: $520.93 & $519.32
QQQ bearish trigger: $438.87
Until these get triggered, I have no trade.
If the market goes higher, I wait & I stack cash while everyone else gets sucked into a sucker’s rally.
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